7
Herja
6yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 110
Down Royal · Racing Post Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 3f 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 12.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Sligo | Harry Sexton | BHA105 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | Harry Sexton | BHA105 | 3rd | 15th | −10 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | Harry Sexton | BHA102 | 2nd | 14th | −10 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | B S Hughes | 3 | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bangor-on-Dee | Harry Sexton | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | Harry Sexton | BHA107 | 3rd | 15th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 95% | +0.79 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |