4
Mic Drop
7yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 112
Down Royal · Racing Post Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 3f 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲9
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -9.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Cork | Sean Flanagan | BHA112 | 3rd | 16th | −11 |
| 2026-09-30 | Sligo | Sean Flanagan | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | Michael Kenneally | BHA110 | 3rd | 16th | −11 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | Josh Williamson | BHA101 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | Sean Flanagan | BHA94 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | Sean Flanagan | ? | 5th | 14th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/12/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 30/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 11/10/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |