9
Etruscan Warrior
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 69
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength85%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Gulfstream | Marcos Meneses | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gulfstream | Marcos Meneses | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 49/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |