Fight And Pray

2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 65

Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-11	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-10-02	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-09-06	Gulfstream	Rasheed Hughes	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-08-23	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 47/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength30%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/08/2026	5th	14/1	26%	20%	-0.06
06/09/2026	6th	10/1	47%	17%	-0.31
02/10/2026	7th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
11/10/2026	5th	6/1	68%	56%	-0.13