1
New Friend
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 63
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength68%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 11/10/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |