Lawler
4yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Gulfstream | Rasheed Hughes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Gulfstream | Cipriano Gil | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-05-30 | Gulfstream | Cipriano Gil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-25 | Gulfstream | Joseph Trejos | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-03-27 | Gulfstream | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Gulfstream | Junior Alvarado | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2024 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 15/12/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 28/02/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/03/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 25/04/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |