Wine Candy
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 83
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | Siggy Golibrzuch | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | Marcos Meneses | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | Marcos Meneses | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |