10
Bourbon Dream
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 91
Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Delaware Park | Samuel Marin | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | Paco Lopez | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Mario Gutierrez | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 62/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |