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4

Justin Smiles

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 94

Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Gulfstream 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 78 par12/02C7OR 78C5 @ Gulfstream 06/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Gulfstream 02/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 79 par2/04C5OR 79C7 @ Gulfstream 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Gulfstream 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fas 120 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 84 par6/06C5OR 84C7 @ Gulfstream 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Gulfstream 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/08C5OR 89C7 @ Gulfstream 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 1m 120 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 91 parC5 @ Gulfstream 27/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark27/09/2026 · OR 92 par27/09C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27GulfstreamDiego Herrera?5th6th−1
2026-09-04GulfstreamEdwin Gonzalez?2nd4th−2
2026-08-15GulfstreamEdwin Gonzalez?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-12GulfstreamEdwin Gonzalez?2nd4th−2
2026-06-06GulfstreamJoe Bravo?6th6th0
2026-05-01GulfstreamJoe Bravo?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/021/0515/0827/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength5%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/02/20264th7/491%63%-0.28
06/03/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
02/04/20262nd16/116%75%+0.59
01/05/20263rd9/153%33%-0.19
06/06/20266th25/10%38%+0.38
12/07/20262nd8/158%75%+0.17
15/08/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
04/09/20262nd1/195%80%-0.15
27/09/20265th7/163%50%-0.13