1
Nickel C
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 95
Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | Javier Castellano | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 27/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |