2
Redland Rebels
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 97
Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Gulfstream | J G Torrealba | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | J G Torrealba | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | J G Torrealba | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Keith Asmussen | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | J R Leparoux | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | Keith Asmussen | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 4/7 | 97% | 17% | -0.80 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 11/10/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |