8
Senor Roberto
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 69/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |