5
Trelawny
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 11 - Showing Up Stakes · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | Edgard Zayas | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |