5
Lighting Arrow
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 64
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | Marcos Meneses | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | Jorge Urdaneta | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Gulfstream | Richard Bracho | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 10/10/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |