Tom B The Goat

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 63

Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.9

Today:

Class gap: +0.6

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-10	Gulfstream	Jonathan Ocasio	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-09-20	Gulfstream	Pedro Jr Monterrey	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-09-11	Gulfstream	Pedro Jr Monterrey	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-20	Presque Isle Downs	Addiel Ayala	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/05/2026	6th	14/1	26%	17%	-0.10
11/09/2026	7th	25/1	0%	14%	+0.14
20/09/2026	6th	16/1	16%	29%	+0.13
10/10/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	86%	+0.49