3
Chance To Party
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gulfstream | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Gulfstream | Rajiv Maragh | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |