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5

Flowko

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 88

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f110y 118 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 72 par20/12C6OR 72C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m Gd 118 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 69 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 78 par13/02C6OR 78C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 7f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 82 par29/03C5OR 82C5 @ Gulfstream 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Gulfstream 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 78 par31/05C5OR 78C5 @ Gulfstream 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 75 parC6 @ Gulfstream 27/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 81 par27/09C6OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27GulfstreamMarcos Meneses?2nd2nd0
2026-06-20GulfstreamSamy Camacho?5th4th+1
2026-05-31GulfstreamSamy Camacho?1st0th+1
2026-04-25GulfstreamMarcos Meneses?3rd2nd+1
2026-03-29Tampa Bay DownsMarcos Meneses?3rd2nd+1
2026-03-01Tampa Bay DownsJose Ferrer?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/121/0331/0527/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20255th9/276%20%-0.56
18/01/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63
13/02/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
01/03/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
29/03/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
25/04/20263rd50/10%50%+0.50
31/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
20/06/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
27/09/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72