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10

Love Like Lucy

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 10 · OR 88

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Gulfstream 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 91 par6/09C5OR 91C5 @ Gulfstream 18/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 89 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Gulfstream 29/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 89 par29/11C5OR 89C5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 79 · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Gulfstream 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 76 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 76 par20/03C5OR 76C5 @ Gulfstream 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Gulfstream 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 76 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 par23/05C5OR 76C5 @ Gulfstream 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Gulfstream 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 81 par18/09C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18GulfstreamMicah Husbands?1st0th+1
2026-07-03GulfstreamMicah Husbands?2nd1st+1
2026-05-23GulfstreamNik Juarez?2nd1st+1
2026-04-25GulfstreamEdwin Gonzalez?4th3rd+1
2026-03-20GulfstreamTyler Gaffalione?2nd1st+1
2026-01-10Tampa Bay DownsDaniel Centeno?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0910/0123/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20253rd15/890%60%-0.30
18/10/20252nd11/271%90%+0.19
29/11/20254th6/168%40%-0.28
10/01/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
20/03/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
25/04/20264th11/271%25%-0.46
23/05/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
03/07/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
18/09/20261st1/499%100%+0.01