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6

Tizasweetlady

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 72

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 17/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 11817/08C6C9 @ Gulfstream 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 29 · 5f 120 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 29 parC5 @ Gulfstream 18/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 65 par18/10C5OR 65C7 @ Gulfstream 02/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 55 · 5f Fas 118 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 55 parC5 @ Gulfstream 30/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 63 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 63 par30/01C5OR 63C5 @ Gulfstream 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 74 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Gulfstream 22/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 67 · 5f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 67 par22/03C5OR 67C7 @ Gulfstream 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 73 · 5f Gd 120 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 73 par10/04C7OR 73projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10GulfstreamEdwin Gonzalez?7th8th−1
2026-03-22GulfstreamHoracio Karamanos?3rd2nd+1
2026-03-14GulfstreamHoracio Karamanos?5th4th+1
2026-01-30GulfstreamHoracio Karamanos?1st0th+1
2025-11-02GulfstreamMarcos Meneses?3rd4th−1
2025-10-18GulfstreamMarcos Meneses?11th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/082/1122/0310/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
13/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
18/10/202511th25/10%0%0.00
02/11/20253rd11/1094%50%-0.44
30/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
14/03/20265th20/10%0%0.00
22/03/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
10/04/20267th4/179%14%-0.65