3
Swell
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 76
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |