3
Hottakejake
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 91
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Gulfstream | Cipriano Gil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | Heriberto Figueroa | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength85%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 10/10/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |