IvyArcIvyArc
4

Neophyte

7yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 85

Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 15/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 89 par15/08C8OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 94 · 5f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 94 parC7 @ Gulfstream 07/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 95 · 5f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 95 par7/11C7OR 95C6 @ Gulfstream 08/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 95 · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Gulfstream 15/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 89 par15/02C8OR 89C8 @ Gulfstream 14/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 91 · 5f110y 121 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Gulfstream 06/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 90 par6/06C8OR 90C8 @ Gulfstream 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 5f Fas 123 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Gulfstream 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par29/08C8OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29GulfstreamAnthony Thomas?1st1st0
2026-08-08GulfstreamAnthony Thomas?2nd2nd0
2026-06-06GulfstreamHeriberto Figueroa?10th10th0
2026-03-14GulfstreamJose Morelos?9th9th0
2026-02-15GulfstreamKatie Davis?8th8th0
2026-01-08GulfstreamDavid Egan?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/088/016/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
19/09/20254th10/147%57%+0.10
07/11/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
08/01/20268th20/10%0%0.00
15/02/20268th25/10%0%0.00
14/03/20269th25/10%0%0.00
06/06/202610th20/10%0%0.00
08/08/20262nd20/10%80%+0.80
29/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47