1
Velociraptor
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 10/10/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |