8
Champagne Brunch
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 73
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Gulfstream | Samy Camacho | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Gulfstream | Samy Camacho | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | Samy Camacho | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | Sonny Leon | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | Sonny Leon | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | Sonny Leon | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/10/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |