IvyArcIvyArc
7

Ditched

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 87

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 86 par25/10C8OR 86C8 @ Gulfstream 05/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 84 parC7 @ Gulfstream 26/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 82 par26/03C7OR 82C8 @ Gulfstream 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 87 parC6 @ Gulfstream 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 90 par16/05C6OR 90C6 @ Gulfstream 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m70y 126 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Gulfstream 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 89 par19/07C8OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Gulfstream 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 1m 121 · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 90 par25/09C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25GulfstreamMicah Husbands?3rd5th−2
2026-09-06GulfstreamSamy Camacho?7th7th0
2026-07-19GulfstreamDiego Herrera?3rd5th−2
2026-06-19GulfstreamDiego Herrera?3rd3rd0
2026-05-16GulfstreamDiego Herrera?5th5th0
2026-04-26GulfstreamMicah Husbands?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1026/0419/0725/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 8-9 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
05/03/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
26/03/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
26/04/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
16/05/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
19/06/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
19/07/20263rd5/493%60%-0.33
06/09/20267th5/174%0%-0.74
25/09/20263rd7/282%50%-0.32