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4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 88

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 1208/03C6C6 @ Keeneland 17/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark17/04/2025 · OR 84 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 96 par10/05C6OR 96C6 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m Fm 12615/05C6C6 @ Laurel Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 126C9 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 85 par10/07C9OR 85C9 @ Saratoga 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 1m 126 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Saratoga 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m1f110y Fm 126 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 85 par4/09C6OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04SaratogaEdgard Zayas?5th5th0
2026-08-12SaratogaJohn Velazquez?1st5th−3
2026-07-10SaratogaTyler Gaffalione?3rd7th−3
2026-06-07Laurel ParkJose Vargas?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-15Laurel ParkFlavien Prat?3rd4th−1
2025-06-13Delaware ParkSamuel Marin?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0313/0610/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/03/20253rd8/158%82%+0.24
17/04/20252nd5/174%90%+0.16
10/05/20254th3/184%73%-0.11
13/06/20255th5/287%50%-0.37
15/05/20263rd11/893%71%-0.21
07/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
10/07/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
12/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
04/09/20265th20/10%56%+0.56