9
Mahogany Dream
2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 90
Keeneland · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Keeneland | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | Ben Curtis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | Ben Curtis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | Martin Garcia | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | Martin Garcia | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +15.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 45% | -0.43 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 09/10/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |