11
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2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 11 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | John Velazquez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | Cristian Torres | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +52.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |