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4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 107
Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Keeneland | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |