1
Immersive
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | Manuel Franco | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |