6
Measure
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | Manuel Franco | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |