2
Nitrogen
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 119
Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Belmont Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/4 | 99% | 67% | -0.32 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 1/11 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |