5
Scottish Lassie
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | Eric Cancel | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/11/2024 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/11 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |