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8

Splendora

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 111

Keeneland · Race 10 - Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - Grade 1 · 1m 1f

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 1.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 110 par25/07C6OR 110C5 @ Del Mar 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 1m Fas 121 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 109 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 109 · 7f Fas 124 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 109 par1/11C?OR 109C0 @ Santa Anita 07/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 7f Fas 124 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Santa Anita 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 117 par7/03C?OR 117C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 114 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 114 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 110 par30/05C?OR 110C0 @ Monmouth Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 111 · 1m110y Fas 124 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 109 · 1m110y 125 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 109 par12/09C?OR 109projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Churchill DownsFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-07-18Monmouth ParkFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-05-30Churchill DownsFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-05-02Churchill DownsFlavien Prat?4th4th0
2026-03-07Santa AnitaJuan Hernandez?1st1st0
2026-02-07Santa AnitaJuan Hernandez?1st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/077/0230/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
02/09/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
01/11/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
07/02/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
07/03/20261st1/899%100%+0.01
02/05/20264th11/1094%25%-0.69
30/05/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
18/07/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
12/09/20261st2/1199%100%+0.01