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13

Bay City Roller

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 13 · OR 119

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proven himself a high-class colt this season, never out of the first 3 in 6 outings, sole success coming in Coronation Cup at Epsom beating Jan Brueghel by 10 lengths. Arrives on the back of placed finishes in the Arc at Longchamp and Champion Stakes at Ascot. Expected to be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ ParisLongchamp 07/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 1m3f204y Sft 128 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 110 par7/09C?OR 110C0 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 113 · 1m1f152y GS 123 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 113 parC0 @ ParisLongchamp 19/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 113 · 1m2f205y GS 122 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 113 par19/10C?OR 1131 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 117 · 1m2f70y Goo 134 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 117 par1 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 117 · 1m2f110y Gd 131 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 117 par24/051OR 1171 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 118 · 1m4f6y GS 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ ParisLongchamp 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 119 · 1m3f204y GS 128 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 119 par6/09C?OR 1191 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 119 · 1m3f204y GS 131 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 119 par1 @ Ascot 17/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 119 · 1m1f212y Gd 133 · beat its mark17/10/2026 · OR 119 par17/101OR 119projClass-projected finish: 5th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-17AscotOisin Murphy13rd3rd0
2026-10-04ParisLongchampOisin Murphy12nd2nd0
2026-09-06ParisLongchampOisin Murphy?2nd2nd−0
2026-06-06Epsom DownsOisin Murphy11st1st0
2026-05-24CurraghOisin Murphy12nd2nd0
2026-05-08ChesterOisin Murphy12nd2nd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/098/056/0917/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20252nd14/126%86%+0.59
04/10/20252nd15/890%86%-0.04
19/10/20254th4/179%50%-0.29
08/05/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
24/05/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
06/06/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
06/09/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
04/10/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
17/10/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05