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6

Burnham Square

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 112

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart performer on dirt and turf, landing Grade 1s on both surfaces. Completed 4-timer in Arlington Million at Colonial Downs in August. Below form in Grade 2 Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs when last seen in September. He still needs to take his form up a notch despite his earlier winning streak.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Churchill Downs 08/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 103 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 103 par8/06C1OR 103C0 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fas 122 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 107 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 108 · 1m2f110y 120 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 108 par30/08C1OR 108C6 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 106 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 106 parC0 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 113 · 1m4f Fm 118 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 113 par18/04C?OR 113C1 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 111 · 1m4f Gd 123 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 111 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 1m3f Fm 123 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 113 par13/06C5OR 113C0 @ Colonial Downs 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 113 · 1m2f Fm 124 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 113 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 112 · 1m4f 126 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 112 par5/09C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 14th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?7th7th−0
2026-08-01Colonial DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?1st1st0
2026-06-13Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?1st6th−4
2026-05-17Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?1st2nd−0
2026-04-18KeenelandBrian Jr Hernandez?1st1st−0
2026-02-28GulfstreamEdgard Zayas?2nd8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0628/0213/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 5-16 · tight 51/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20252nd10/382%67%-0.16
19/07/20255th10/147%43%-0.05
30/08/20252nd14/126%91%+0.65
28/02/20262nd9/276%91%+0.15
18/04/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
17/05/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
13/06/20261st1/11100%100%+0.00
01/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/09/20267th9/488%25%-0.63