5
El Cordobes
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 124
Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Belmont Park | Flavien Prat | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | Billy Loughnane | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | John Velazquez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Newmarket | W Buick | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-14 | York | W Buick | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 55/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 01/10/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |