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Ethical Diamond

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 127

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capped off a superb 2025 with success in last year's Turf at Del Mar. Won Group 3 at Leopardstown this summer and then found only Tiffany too good in Grade 2 Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs back in September. Looks to have been brought along this season with this very much in mind.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Cheltenham 14/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 143 · 2m179y GS 159 · below its mark14/03/2025 · OR 143 par14/031OR 1431 @ Ayr 12/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 144 · 2m Goo 166 · below its mark12/04/2025 · OR 144 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 96 · 1m3f211y GF 129 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 96 par20/062OR 962 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 104 · 1m5f188y Goo 134 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 104 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 112 · 1m4f Fm 126 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 112 par1/11C?OR 112C0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 121 · 1m4f Gd 126 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 121 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 120 · 1m3f211y GF 129 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 120 par20/061OR 1201 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 118 · 1m4f Goo 135 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 131 · 1m4f 126 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 131 par5/09C?OR 131projClass-projected finish: 7th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsR L Moore?2nd2nd−0
2026-08-06LeopardstownR L Moore11st2nd−0
2026-06-20Royal AscotDylan Browne McMonagle19th9th−0
2026-03-28MeydanD Tudhope?5th5th0
2025-11-01Del MarDylan Browne McMonagle?1st1st0
2025-08-23YorkW Buick21st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0323/0820/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 3-16 · tight 39/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20254th16/116%80%+0.64
12/04/20257th5/174%45%-0.28
20/06/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
23/08/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
01/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
28/03/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
20/06/20269th17/255%27%-0.28
06/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/09/20262nd5/493%88%-0.06