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7

Hotazhell

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 115

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took the Futurity Trophy as a juvenile and first wins since when landing German Group 1 and Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown the last twice. This is only his second start at the trip but he's not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Doncaster 26/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 107 · 1m Sft 129 · beat its mark26/10/2024 · OR 107 par26/101OR 1071 @ Curragh 24/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 117 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 117 par1 @ Sandown 05/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 117 · 1m1f209y Goo 125 · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 117 par5/071OR 117C0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 117 · 1m1f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 117 par1 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 117 · 1m2f Goo 129 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 117 par13/091OR 117C0 @ ParisLongchamp 05/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 117 · 1m3f204y Ver 124 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 117 par1 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 117 · 1m1f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 117 par7/061OR 1171 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 116 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 116 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 116 par12/091OR 116projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownShane Foley11st1st0
2026-06-28CurraghShane Foley13rd4th−0
2026-06-07NavanShane Foley12nd3rd−1
2025-10-05ParisLongchampShane Foley?10th10th0
2025-09-13LeopardstownShane Foley14th4th0
2025-08-02SaratogaShane Foley?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/102/087/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength55%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20241st11/142%100%+0.58
24/05/20253rd9/153%75%+0.22
05/07/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
02/08/20254th9/488%63%-0.26
13/09/20254th18/15%57%+0.52
05/10/202510th80/10%44%+0.44
07/06/20262nd5/493%89%-0.05
28/06/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
12/09/20261st50/10%100%+1.00