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9

Johanna Walsh

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 116

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account in a Leopardstown maiden in May before a close second in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and then winning the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. May have been unsuited by the softer ground in the Yorkshire Oaks at York when last seen and conditions should be more suitable here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m44y Goo 1289/10C8C8 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f130y Sft 1299/04C8C8 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 12710/05C81 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 92 · 1m3f211y GF 128 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 92 par18/061OR 921 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 108 · 1m4f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 108 par18/071OR 1081 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 117 · 1m3f188y GS 126 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 117 par20/081OR 117projClass-projected finish: 13th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20YorkDylan Browne McMonagle16th6th0
2026-07-18CurraghDylan Browne McMonagle11st1st0
2026-06-18Royal AscotDylan Browne McMonagle12nd2nd−0
2026-05-10LeopardstownDylan Browne McMonagle?1st10th−8
2026-04-09Gowran ParkDeclan McDonogh?3rd12th−8
2025-10-09ThurlesDeclan McDonogh?3rd12th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/109/0410/0518/0618/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
09/04/20263rd7/491%67%-0.24
10/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
18/06/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
18/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
20/08/20266th5/174%38%-0.36