3
Minaret Station
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 113
Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Belmont Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | Cristian Torres | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | Cristian Torres | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | Cristian Torres | BHA88 | 1st | 11th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 7-16 · tight 60/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2024 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |