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5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 119

Keeneland · Race 11 - Longines Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Repaid some of the huge fee paid for her last year by winning 3 times this campaign, latest in Grade 1 at Saratoga in August. Run best excused when down the field in Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last month after saddle slipped. This looks a tough race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ ParisLongchamp 07/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 112 · 1m3f204y Sft 130 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 112 par7/09C?OR 112C0 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 112 · 1m5f202y GS 130 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 112 par2 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 112 · 1m2f Std 125 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 112 par31/012OR 1121 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 112 · 1m Sta 128 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 112 par1 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 112 · 1m1f GF 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 112 par3/051OR 1121 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 111 · 1m1f212y GF 126 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 109 · 1m4f 120 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 109 par2/08C?OR 109C0 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 121 · 1m4f Yie 119 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 121 parC0 @ ParisLongchamp 06/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 121 · 1m3f204y GS 130 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 121 par6/09C?OR 121projClass-projected finish: 11th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06ParisLongchampR L Moore?10th10th0
2026-08-15SaratogaManuel Franco?1st1st0
2026-08-02SaratogaFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-06-16Royal AscotR L Moore16th7th−1
2026-05-03NewmarketR L Moore13rd3rd−0
2026-03-28KemptonBilly Loughnane14th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0928/032/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 5-16 · tight 51/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
04/10/202512th9/153%0%-0.53
31/01/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
28/03/20264th9/488%70%-0.18
03/05/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
16/06/20266th20/10%67%+0.67
02/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
15/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
06/09/202610th17/255%25%-0.30