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Sovereignty

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 116

Keeneland · Race 12 - Longines Breeders' Cup Classic - Grade 1 · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

58%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2025 Kentucky Derby and Belmont hero, but then missed his assignment in this last year due to a setback. Has only made the track on 3 occasions this year, looking back to best when winning the Whitney at Saratoga in August. Missed recent prep in Jockey Club Gold Cup but class is there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Gulfstream 01/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark01/03/2025 · OR 95 par1/03C?OR 95C0 @ Gulfstream 29/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 102 · 1m1f Fas 122 · beat its mark29/03/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 100 · 1m2f Slo 126 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 100 par3/05C?OR 100C0 @ Saratoga 07/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 102 · 1m2f Fas 126 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Saratoga 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fas 124 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 107 par26/07C?OR 107C0 @ Saratoga 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 109 · 1m2f Fas 126 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 109 parC2 @ Oaklawn Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f Fas 12318/04C2C0 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 116 · 1m1f Slo 124 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 114 · 1m1f 126 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 114 par8/08C?OR 114projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08SaratogaJunior Alvarado?1st1st0
2026-06-27Churchill DownsJunior Alvarado?3rd3rd0
2026-04-18Oaklawn ParkJunior Alvarado?2nd4th−2
2025-08-23SaratogaJunior Alvarado?1st1st0
2025-07-26SaratogaJunior Alvarado?1st1st−0
2025-06-07SaratogaJunior Alvarado?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/037/0618/048/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
29/03/20252nd11/893%89%-0.04
03/05/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
07/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
26/07/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
23/08/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
18/04/20262nd4/596%80%-0.16
27/06/20263rd4/696%50%-0.46
08/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12