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5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 12 - Longines Breeders' Cup Classic - Grade 1 · 1m 2f

#8

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★ Timeform

Commentary

Fifth on previous US outing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, with Forever Young third. Has stayed in Japan since, winning non-graded stakes at Tokyo back in May before finishing third in a Sapporo Group 3 in August. Hard to fancy in this company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Churchill Downs 04/05/2024 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR - · 1m2f Slo 1264/05C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2024-05-04Churchill DownsKazushi Kimura?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20245th40/10%79%+0.79