4
The Puma
3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 110
Keeneland · Race 12 - Longines Breeders' Cup Classic - Grade 1 · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Javier Castellano | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | Luis Saez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | Javier Castellano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | Javier Castellano | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Gulfstream | Javier Castellano | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |