8
Don't Tell Mom
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 84
Keeneland · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Churchill Downs | Yedsit Hazlewood | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | Yedsit Hazlewood | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |