7
Fizzypopberrytwist
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 57
Keeneland · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Amir Mendoza | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Orlando Jr Mojica | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | D E Sheehy | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | Joseph Bealmear | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |