Henro
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 13 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | David Cabrera | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | David Cabrera | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | Israel Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | Marcelino Jr Pedroza | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fair Grounds | Marcelino Jr Pedroza | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | Rafael Bejarano | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 23/02/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 01/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |