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12

Here Mi Song

8yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 12 · OR 103

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 104 · 7f Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 104 par3/05C?OR 104C1 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 106 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/05/2025 · OR 106 parC5 @ Ellis Park 20/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 101 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2025 · OR 101 par20/07C5OR 101C6 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 105 · 6f Fas 121 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 105 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 110 par13/09C5OR 110C0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 113 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 113 parC5 @ Ellis Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 112 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 112 par18/07C5OR 112C6 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 108 · 6f110y Slo 121 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Keeneland 02/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 110 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 110 par2/10C?OR 110projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02KeenelandEdgar Morales?8th2nd+5
2026-08-17Ellis ParkEdgar Morales?4th4th0
2026-07-18Ellis ParkEdgar Morales?3rd2nd+1
2025-10-03KeenelandEdgar Morales?4th-2th+5
2025-09-13Churchill DownsEdgar Morales?2nd1st+1
2025-08-09Ellis ParkEdgar Morales?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/059/0818/072/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/202511th50/10%0%0.00
31/05/20255th33/10%20%+0.20
20/07/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
09/08/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
13/09/20252nd14/126%86%+0.59
03/10/20254th9/153%40%-0.13
18/07/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
17/08/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
02/10/20268th20/10%0%0.00