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3

Jimmy Rules

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 94

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 22/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark22/03/2025 · OR 89 par22/03C6OR 89C5 @ Keeneland 16/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 99 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/04/2025 · OR 99 parC5 @ Keeneland 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 96 par17/04C5OR 96C5 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 91 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 91 par4/06C5OR 91C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 91 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 91 parC5 @ Thistledown 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 89 par28/07C5OR 89C5 @ Thistledown 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 92 parC5 @ Thistledown 02/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 92 par2/10C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02ThistledownJose Bracho?1st0th+1
2026-08-31ThistledownJose Bracho?1st0th+1
2026-07-28ThistledownJose Bracho?1st0th+1
2026-06-25Horseshoe IndianapolisJoseph Ramos?9th8th+1
2026-06-04Horseshoe IndianapolisJoseph Ramos?4th3rd+1
2026-05-09Churchill DownsLuan Machado?11th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/039/0528/072/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 11-13 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/20252nd20/10%90%+0.90
16/04/20252nd12/137%86%+0.49
17/04/20268th25/10%0%0.00
09/05/202611th40/10%0%0.00
04/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
25/06/20269th8/158%0%-0.58
28/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
31/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
02/10/20261st5/493%100%+0.07